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1965 JTWC STUDIES Chapter IV
SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYLONES


  1.  
  2.  
  3.     The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a total of 805 tropical warnings on 21 Typhoons, 13 Tropical Storms and 6 Tropical Depressions in the Western Pacific Ocean in 1965. The previous record of 165 calendar days in warning established in 1961 was broken this year with JTWC spending 167 calendar days in warning. During this time 2 or more tropical cyclones were carried on 55 days with 3 tropical cyclones carried on 10 of these.

    The following data for the JTWC area of responsibility is presented for comparison:


COMPARATIVE WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA
YEAR 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965
TOTAL NUMBER OF WARNINGS 583 776 738 815 663 730 805
CALENDAR DAYS OF WARNING 137 157 165 154 146 153 167
SUSPECT CYCLONES* 32 26 27 17 5 7 -
TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS 7 3 11 9 3 5 6
TROPICAL STORMS 9 8 11 6 6 14 13
TYPHOONS 17 19 20 24 19 26 21
TOTAL TROPICAL CYCLONES* 65 56 69 56 33 52 40
*Investigative flights were not assigned cyclone numbers during 1965 as had been done in the past,.


  1.     In the area of the North Pacific Ocean east of 180° warnings were issued on a total of 12 tropical cyclones of which one. Tropical Storm DOREEN, moved into the area between 140°W and 180°. (See Annex A).

  2.     1965 was also a record year for "Super Typhoons" (maximum sustained surface winds of 130 knots or greater). A total of 11 typhoons were classified as "Super Typhoons". The most intense storm of 1965 was Typhoon DINAH (10 June - 19 June) with a maximum sustained surface wind of 160 knots.

NUMBER OF SUPER TYPHOONS BY YEAR
1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965
8 4 6 6 8 6 11


  1.     Another example of the Fujiwhara Effect occurred during 1965. The Fujiwhara Effect was observed between Typhoons JEAN and IVY in the Philippine Sea during the period 29 July through 1 August. JEAN became the predominate system and absorbed IVY on 1 August.

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  4.     A study was made (see Chapter III) on the rapid movement of some typhoons prior to becoming extratropical. The best example of this phenomenon was Typhoon FAYE which reached a maximum forward speed of 65 knots on 26 November 1965, six hours prior to becoming extratropical. AMY, JEAN, TRIX and CARMEN were other typhoons that reached forward speeds of 40 knots or more as much as 18 hours prior to becoming extratropical.

  5.     The 24, 48 and 72-hour mean forecast error for each typhoon was computed by two methods. In addition to the standard mean vector forecast error table shown below, a computation of closest-distance error from best track has been included for comparison. This error computation is based on the closest right angle distance of the forecast position to the best track without regard to time. Possibly this will give the user a better understanding of the ability of JTWC to forecast the effects of a typhoon on one particular area.

  6.     The following tabulation of the forecast vector error for the past 16 years is given for comparison:

FORECAST VERIFICATION AVERAGE ERROR NAUTICAL MILES,
  24 HR 48 HR 72 HR
1950-58 170 - -
1959 117 267 -
1960 177 354 -
1961 136 274 -
1962 144 287 476
1963 127 246 374
1964 133 284 429
1965 151 303 418
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1965 FORECAST VECTOR ERRORS*
TYPHOON 24 HR FORECASTS 48 HR FORECASTS 72 HR FORECASTS
NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR
PATSY 10 213 6 511 - -
WANDA 6 99 2 280 - -
AMY 17 210 13 417 8 677
BABE 16 164 12 340 5 437
CARLA 4 151 - - - -
DINAH 26 87 20 136 16 161
FREDA 29 146 25 271 18 371
HARRIET 17 186 13 380 8 576
IVY 13 233 8 541 3 1054
JEAN 24 128 20 276 16 373
LUCY 29 169 25 329 19 481
MARY 14 107 10 154 5 170
OLIVE 17 138 13 284 9 449
ROSE 15 55 11 127 3 245
SHIRLEY 16 231 12 589 3 871
TRIX 27 138 23 302 18 426
VIRGINIA 11 289 7 615 3 1055
BESS 26 106 22 256 16 401
CARMEN 21 148 15 238 11 289
DELIA 23 152 17 277 11 484
FAYE 44 148 40 268 36 370
  1. AVERAGE ERROR 24 HR FORECASTS (405 CASES)... 151 MI
  2. AVERAGE ERROR 48 HR FORECASTS (314 CASES)... 303 MI
  3. AVERAGE ERROR 72 HR FORECASTS (208 CASES)... 418 MI

  4. *Includes Forecast Vector Errors during tropical storm intensity
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1965 FORECAST ERRORS*
(IN TERMS OF CLOSEST DISTANCE TO BEST TRACK)
TYPHOON 24 HR FORECASTS 48 HR FORECASTS 72 HR FORECASTS
NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR NO. OF CASES MEAN ERROR
PATSY 10 91 6 327 - -
WANDA 6 70 2 125 - -
AMY 17 80 13 198 8 353
BABE 16 100 12 241 5 320
CARIA 4 85 - - - -
DINAH 26 50 20 87 16 91
FREDA 29 65 25 87 18 103
HARRIET 17 73 13 120 8 163
IVY 13 124 8 333 3 802
JEAN 24 66 20 178 16 255
LUCY 29 106 25 209 19 290
MARY 14 62 10 116 5 143
OLIVE 17 109 13 231 9 361
ROSE 15 45 11 108 3 239
SHIRLEY 16 139 12 395 3 676
TRIX 27 81 23 183 18 276
VIRGINIA 11 133 7 184 3 227
BESS 26 78 22 194 16 284
CARMEN 21 69 15 109 11 106
DELIA 23 70 17 147 11 340
FAYE 44 78 40 134 36 173
  1. AVERAGE ERROR 24 HR FORECASTS (405 CASES)... 82 MI
  2. AVERAGE ERROR 48 HR FORECASTS (314 CASES)... 172 MI
  3. AVERAGE ERROR 72 HR FORECASTS (208 CASES)... 236 MI

  4. *Includes Forecast Errors during tropical storm intensity

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FORECAST ERROR TABULATION 1965
  NUMBER OF CASES VECTOR RIGHT ANGLE
  MEAN R.M.S. MEAN R.M.S.
24 hour
TOTAL 405 151 182 82 103
BELOW 20N 177 134 161 75 96
20N - 30N 160 140 162 80 98
ABOVE 30N 67 222 263 106 130
BELOW 35N 375 142 170 78 100
ABOVE 35N 30 272 295 130 142
48 hour
TOTAL 314 303 358 172 211
BELOW 20N 111 261 314 149 189
20N - 30N 137 281 333 173 214
ABOVE 30N 66 411 469 206 239
BELOW 35N 285 287 340 171 212
ABOVE 35N 29 459 499 179 204
72 hour
TOTAL 208 418 494 267 294
BELOW 20N 60 333 397 190 254
20N - 30N 94 402 463 241 294
ABOVE 30N 54 542 627 279 333
BELOW 35N 184 386 451 269 295
ABOVE 35N 24 670 760 255 284


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DISTANCE BETWEEN OPERATIONAL WARNING
POSITS AND BEST TRACK POSITS
CYCLONE CASES CYCLONE AVERAGE MAX MTN
1 PATSY 16 28 70 0
2 RUTH 18 77 252 0
3 SARAH 11 45 108 0
4 THELMA 5 65 104 9
5 VERA 3 30 39 22
6 WANDA 10 23 72 0
7 AMY 25 37 125 5
8 T. D. 4 82 125 42
9 BABE 20 22 77 5
10 CARLA 8 38 122 11
11 DINAH 34 15 48 0
12 EMMA 18 30 70 4
13 T. D. 7 65 90 40
14 FREDA 36 29 118 0
15 GILDA 23 45 144 5
16 HARRIET 25 35 125 3
17 JEAN 40 32 146 0
18 IVY 17 40 109 6
19 KIM 13 22 42 6
20; LUCY 33 20 99 0
21 MARY 18 26 146 0
22 NADINE 10 22 43 3
23 T. D. 10 70 215 12
24 T. D. 3 21 27 14
25 OLIVE 21 17 42 0
26 POLLY 12 47 120 0
27 ROSE 18 14 36 0
28 SHIRLEY 28 57 239 5
29 TRIX 33 30 123 4
30 T. D. 7 72 152 8
31 VIRGINIA 16 28 82 0
32 WENDY 39 50 194 0
33 AGNES 12 34 68 12
34 BESS 30 20 97 3
35 CARMEN 35 38 86 0
36 T. D. 7 24 42 0
37 DELIA 28 44 144 6
38 ELAINE 33 28 87 4
39 FAYE 49 33 163 0
40 GLORIA 12 69 206 3
AVERAGE 34.7    


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Typhoon Tracks - 1965 Typhoon Tracks - 1965


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1965 TROPICAL CYCLONES
CYCL TYPE NAME *DATE *CALENDAR DAYS OF WARNING *MAX SFC WNDS MIN OBS SLP MAX RADIUS SFC CIRC TOTAL NO. WARNINGS ISSUED NO. WARNINGS ISSUED AS TYPHOON *DISTANCE TRAVELED
1 T PATSY 19-Jan JAN-23 5 65 989 375 17 6 619
2 TS RUTH 21-Jan JAN-25 5 60 996 490 18 - 2179
3 TS SARAH 14-Feb FEB-17 4 45 998 275 11 - 527
4 TS THELMA 18-Feb FEB-19 2 40 1001 200 5 - 208
5 TS VERA 6-Mar MAR-07 2 45 1003 300 4 - 122
6 T WANDA 12-Apr APR-14 3 65 998 250 11 2 914
7 T AMY 21-May MAY-27 7 100 976 275 25 10 2250
8 th   29-May MAY-30 2 25 1000 250 4 - 90
9 T BABE 30-May JUN-04 6 80 985 275 21 12 576
10 T CARLA 1-Jun JUN-03 3 120 991 225 8 4 605
11 T DINAH 10-Jun JUN-19 10 160 932 525 37 24 2795
12 TS EMMA 18-Jun JUN-21 8 50 994 350 20 - 1308
      23-Jun JUN-26              
13 th   6-Jul JUL-08 3 25 1003 300 . 8 - 305
14 T FREDA 7-Jul JUL-16 10 140 922 675 0.36 27 2400
15 TS GILDA 13-Jul JUL-14 6 60 986 550 25 - 1356
      17-Jul JUL-23              
16 T HARRIET 21-Jul JUL-27 7 100 973 750 25 16 2080
17 T JEAN 26-Jul JUL-29 12 140 940 625 41 27 3565
      31-Jul AUG-07              
18 T' IVY 27-Jul JUL-31 6 80 991 325 18 12 1100
19 TS KIM 4-Aug AUG-07 4 60 980 175 13 - 620
20 T LUCY 15-Aug AUG-23 9 150 940 425 33 27 2583
21 T MARY 15-Aug AUG-19 5 150 936 600 18 14 1000
22 TS NADINE 16-Aug AUG-18 3 60 996 200 10 - 450
23 th   26-Aug AUG-28 3 25 1004 250 10 - 350
24 th   26-Aug AUG-26 1 25 1003 250 4 - 140
25 T OLIVE 28-Aug SEP-02 6 150 936 550 21 17 1118
26 TS POLLY 30-Aug SEP-02 4 45 992 425 12 - 804
27 T ROSE 1-Sep SEP-05 5 100 968 400 19 16 1232
28 T SHIRLEY 4-Sep SEP-10 7 130 936 625 28 19 2255
29 T TRIX 10-Sep SEP-18 9 130 930 850 33 27 2497
30 th   13-Sep SEP-14 2 25 999 200 7 - 225
31 T VIRGINIA 13-Sep SEP-17 5 65 980 300 16 4 1858
32 TS WENDY 16-Sep SEP-25 10 50 986 400 39 - 2295
33 TS AGNES 25-Sep SEP-28 4 60 977 375 13 - 560
34 T BESS 27-Sep OCT-04 8 150 901 850 30 29 1775
35 T CARMEN 1-Oct OCT-09 10 150 916 825 37 18 2775
36 th   8-Oct OCT-09 2 25 996 275 16 - 358
37 T DELLA 13-Oct OCT-19 7 85 970 900 28 20 2100
38 TS ELAINE 7-Nov NOV-13 7 50 993 400 23 - 909
39 T FAYE 14-Nov NOV-25 13 135 925 700 49 21 4001
40 TS GLORIA 18-Dec DEC-21 4 40 1003 225 12 - 650
    TOTALS     167       805 352  
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